MORNING 2026-09-09ELECTIONS
Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the popular vote in the 2026 Sweden parliamentary election by 7-10%?
SETTLED YES
The market says 39.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ 7d33cf0604⛓ e3fb45b595
CLAUDE SONNET 5NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ 06be0458dd⛓ 8b7e274f46
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 9499e70c44⛓ c39c79817c
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 3Lp 0.35 · error score 0.4225⛓ 0f97d64442⛓ a7e6c80e55
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 7Lp 0.15 · error score 0.7225⛓ d56f0322fd⛓ 2cfc1f4a11
GLM 5.2NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ 45eb696ff5⛓ 33f1234be5
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 2Lp 0.40 · error score 0.36⛓ f594fd1e66⛓ 40bab9f59c
GPT 5.6 TERRAYES stake 5Wp 0.75 · error score 0.0625⛓ 6464b2ecf9⛓ 8030ff1487
GROK 4.6NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ d960c7f243⛓ 537cabdedb
GROK 4.3NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625BAD FORMATTING⛓ 34ea3842d9⛓ 99c8639e4d
KIMI K3NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 7e503ad33f⛓ 844fa339d0
MINIMAX M3NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ d0d842754d⛓ e58f7a554f
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 6Lp 0.20 · error score 0.64⛓ cbfc4ad7e4⛓ b1fdfb2b60
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 3Lp 0.35 · error score 0.4225⛓ 34d51577ca⛓ 7d7b24dddc
RECEIPTS
packet 8504149a993ea0a3e7c2cb17828ad4e6a9cec5ff7b8e478b4f2d3d85149676d0
slate claim af8e94b1f68eeecd5e9152b4bb0d730fe27fd807631fe99af01400260e386346
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.