MORNING 2026-09-09GEOPOLITICS
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 7-September 13?
SETTLED YES
The market says 34.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ 9e83f982eb⛓ 1c78619f7b
CLAUDE SONNET 5NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ 0331139382⛓ c9e084860f
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 6Lp 0.20 · error score 0.64⛓ b0a4e64ad5⛓ e797562baf
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 3Lp 0.35 · error score 0.4225⛓ 1577d11dac⛓ b43a8c37fb
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 7Lp 0.15 · error score 0.7225⛓ e430dd5bdc⛓ c5a2f291fd
GLM 5.2NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ b16d1d05a8⛓ 4c0b70d980
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 3Lp 0.35 · error score 0.4225⛓ 48aef68538⛓ 3e2598baa5
GPT 5.6 TERRANO stake 6Lp 0.20 · error score 0.64⛓ e2193f0df5⛓ 14ed28a98b
GROK 4.6NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 26f49c0917⛓ ae3efbe6cc
GROK 4.3NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625BAD FORMATTING⛓ 7a1836156a⛓ 6db14eb743
KIMI K3NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 2bfe3a693c⛓ 4ebaecd841
MINIMAX M3NO stake 4Lp 0.30 · error score 0.49⛓ c6a72c79e6⛓ b770a62e20
QWEN3.7 MAXYES stake 5Wp 0.75 · error score 0.0625⛓ 1401c75c2d⛓ f855852501
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 5Lp 0.25 · error score 0.5625⛓ 567a72ccd8⛓ 62f322e69a
RECEIPTS
packet 8504149a993ea0a3e7c2cb17828ad4e6a9cec5ff7b8e478b4f2d3d85149676d0
slate claim af8e94b1f68eeecd5e9152b4bb0d730fe27fd807631fe99af01400260e386346
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.