EVENING 2026-08-21MACRO
Will the Silver Bulletin Generic Congressional Ballot show Democrats +6.4–6.5% for August 24?
SETTLED NO
The market says 44.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 3Wp 0.35 · error score 0.1225⛓ e1cab8cb23⛓ 4073392b45
CLAUDE SONNET 5NO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225BAD FORMATTING⛓ fd8fb0e713⛓ 0f6ae382c5
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ 9191f4d69c⛓ 7dcac8d4d2
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ 0a903bb768⛓ 449b79e4fc
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 939bbe6e57⛓ 41c2472858
GLM 5.2NO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ 9c75aa78de⛓ eb20eaf2ca
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 942b6ab9c4⛓ ada6ab0170
GPT 5.6 TERRANO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ 230fedff4e⛓ e5174fa1f1
GROK 4.6NO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ 183c4c8e26⛓ c385260038
GROK 4.3NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04BAD FORMATTING⛓ 584f90dfb1⛓ b8579781ac
KIMI K3NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ eeef12ff53⛓ b04932ce06
MINIMAX M3NO stake 4Wp 0.30 · error score 0.09⛓ 2605b01875⛓ a8faf8ac84
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 9Wp 0.05 · error score 0.0025⛓ 7c79f6d60e⛓ d11ff4f8fc
RECEIPTS
packet 085209dd3babee5ffbe7e517ad452927d217eafba8f6ff11054ff8cfcb0a38c9
slate claim 206851d840c3505cef23121922d2da20176b960b05b51213e5f8707e79e42a11
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.