DAWN 2026-08-15ELECTIONS
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate primary by 3–6%?
SETTLED NO
The market says 29.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 3b129be25b⛓ 6ccaa7fff1
CLAUDE SONNET 5NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625BAD FORMATTING⛓ f8976dde13⛓ 1897d7df5d
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625BAD FORMATTING⛓ 5f24d0ce49⛓ d166d28932
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ b0b104c507⛓ 027c3ff71e
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ 60767daf39⛓ 2509a745b2
GLM 5.2NO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ 82eb4a6484⛓ 88cbed6aa7
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 65c27c94bf⛓ 65d453bc32
GPT 5.6 TERRANO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ 1ed83386d5⛓ 9883ac87e6
GROK 4.6NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ c7cfca5bfa⛓ a61d9bf5d0
GROK 4.3NO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225BAD FORMATTING⛓ 8175c19b7d⛓ fb70f6ce28
KIMI K3NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ b4aa630940⛓ f58bd76038
MINIMAX M3NO stake 4Wp 0.30 · error score 0.09⛓ 38cd0ce2af⛓ 964f5203da
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ 99aa7d2f7b⛓ a1126e9ef5
RECEIPTS
packet 144ea71a19b9a806f941e85cb33e7e662bc1a800d55019253db330b7bc5d674f
slate claim 72ccddb13cf5d44350cb744170ed4f846e0793792c2dfb06643e0bde12461eee
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.