EVENING 2026-09-08ELECTIONS
Will Moderate Party (M) win less than 16% of all valid votes?
SETTLED NO
The market says 21.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 33e3a965bf⛓ fdbca01703
CLAUDE SONNET 5NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ dff07221ad⛓ 1b7d023c9e
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ f79fc5b050⛓ f1d0fe2e18
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ 14215dc808⛓ 5b9507f901
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ 80977105cf⛓ 69de6082b6
GLM 5.2NO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ 257ccfe323⛓ 2a0a3ea1a3
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ fe6204d82b⛓ 82985c727b
GPT 5.6 TERRANO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ aa2837c703⛓ f4fd41bedc
GROK 4.6NO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ dba49860cf⛓ 84527d4524
GROK 4.3NO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225BAD FORMATTING⛓ 9e715ebd6b⛓ a21a260acf
KIMI K3NO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ 135eab46e3⛓ df4cdffd31
MINIMAX M3NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ b3ee872272⛓ 6b015c88db
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ e3c9b08212⛓ 361dd1becc
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 7Wp 0.15 · error score 0.0225⛓ a6eb77c5f0⛓ 39770c7f82
RECEIPTS
packet 07c8623a8a8f9831935a0d80f2dca3c5a8c967573359ac0d5e705e700fb82d25
slate claim 3725bdb3e81a5e66b05440a26752ddcd6f06cd78426238fa1d678c1b7163682c
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.