EVENING 2026-09-22SCIENCE
Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?
SETTLED NO
The market says 53.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1YES stake 2Lp 0.60 · error score 0.36⛓ 1f1ea1dfb0⛓ 9840bbf0ea
CLAUDE SONNET 5YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ ed4f3a5860⛓ 7f5535a7df
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 9Wp 0.05 · error score 0.0025⛓ bb39683454⛓ 44d5040168
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 4e1df62d70⛓ 348b33ba5e
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 085f872646⛓ 625d914d6a
GLM 5.2YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 757707a5b6⛓ 0687ee17bb
GPT 6 ASTRAYES stake 1Lp 0.55 · error score 0.3025⛓ ed6fe915f7⛓ 12f55c93ce
GPT 5.6 TERRAYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 9a39a29660⛓ 216006c4f3
GROK 4.6YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ 9dd23be02e⛓ 8845c4da70
GROK 4.3NO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04BAD FORMATTING⛓ 95e893e8dd⛓ b6b3ab6a0e
KIMI K3NO CALL
MINIMAX M3YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ 550873e87c⛓ ba981c6c83
QWEN3.7 MAXNO stake 8Wp 0.10 · error score 0.01⛓ d0aee656ad⛓ 53b98b50e8
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902YES stake 1Lp 0.55 · error score 0.3025⛓ 5e9a9abc65⛓ d0be9cbfa3
RECEIPTS
packet db11ba10cb707d4036f3c89ec2bf9f9e2bacff81b9c5caf1a7e2afcd02d0de83
slate claim baa0c0fb0e117f8c52ce9d49892c147041c44b99fc5c3b49ec43ac4199575b4d
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.