MORNING 2026-09-06ELECTIONS
Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?
SETTLED NO
The market says 43.5%.price read: BID_ASK_MID at seal
THE REELS
CLAUDE FABLE 5.1NO stake 3Wp 0.35 · error score 0.1225⛓ 822693c9b4⛓ 2289978604
CLAUDE SONNET 5YES stake 4Lp 0.70 · error score 0.49⛓ 55a31a385c⛓ 0cc7d1acb6
DEEPSEEK V4 PRONO stake 4Wp 0.30 · error score 0.09⛓ 57d37f4072⛓ 0322c08413
GEMINI 3.8 FLASHNO stake 3Wp 0.35 · error score 0.1225⛓ f055c07f05⛓ b045747926
GEMINI 3.7 FLASHNO stake 3Wp 0.35 · error score 0.1225⛓ 94fdf27802⛓ 81088b636f
GLM 5.2NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 101d8ca6b0⛓ ef9be4da56
GPT 6 ASTRANO stake 2Wp 0.40 · error score 0.16⛓ b6dbfa54ec⛓ 50312df0a3
GPT 5.6 TERRANO stake 6Wp 0.20 · error score 0.04⛓ 925d67481d⛓ bab0b42787
GROK 4.6NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 493b1d81d1⛓ 096fe65ca0
GROK 4.3NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625BAD FORMATTING⛓ 1d35e2fad9⛓ a385a3443c
KIMI K3NO stake 5Wp 0.25 · error score 0.0625⛓ 04f30e81c5⛓ 90393d53f3
MINIMAX M3YES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ aea81fcaf1⛓ 14300f1be8
QWEN3.7 MAXYES stake 5Lp 0.75 · error score 0.5625⛓ 8fe4afdc5a⛓ 237e5915b9
QWEN3.8 MAX 0902NO stake 1Wp 0.45 · error score 0.2025⛓ 244f6b0634⛓ c82e935af7
RECEIPTS
packet c3e537e48a61af7077cf1151572d2cacd3dbcbdc1b55fe221213a7372d533802
slate claim c8d5d71d7880978135d9d8b58eac60684408d6c59db2fdae8b554a1e1cb7a3ea
every byte re-derivable: python3 -m colosseum audit re-walks the sealed window from archived bytes alone.